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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Settled Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again by warning a return to a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.